Blue Jackets Get Another Chance to Overcome Bad Lottery Luck – Reports
The Columbus Blue Jackets have historically faced significant challenges at the NHL Draft Lottery, never securing the first overall pick in their history. The only time they held this top pick was through a trade in 2002, resulting in the selection of Rick Nash. Their only instance of moving up in the draft order due to a lottery draw occurred in 2016, allowing them to pick third and select Pierre-Luc Dubois.
Despite this history of misfortune, the upcoming 2024 NHL Draft Lottery presents another opportunity for the Blue Jackets to potentially change their luck. The past lottery outcomes do not dictate future results, and the team eagerly awaits Tuesday’s reveal to determine their draft position for the 2024 NHL Draft.
A Quick History Lesson
In the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery, the Columbus Blue Jackets held the second-best odds to secure the first overall pick. However, they were unable to win either of the two lottery draws, and instead dropped from the second position to the third overall pick. Despite this setback, the Blue Jackets were still able to draft highly touted prospect Adam Fantilli with the third selection.
The Blue Jackets’ Lottery Misfortunes
2023: The Blue Jackets held the second-best odds to win the first overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery. However, they were unable to win either of the two lottery draws, dropping them down to the third overall selection, where they ultimately drafted Adam Fantilli.
2022: The Blue Jackets were limited to a maximum 10-place jump in the draft order, holding the 12th-best odds for the first pick. They were unable to secure the top selection and ended up drafting Denton Mateychuk 12th overall. That year, they also held the 6th overall pick from the Blackhawks, which they used to select David Jiricek.
2021: The Blue Jackets had the fifth-best odds for the first overall pick, but did not win either of the lottery draws. The Canadiens won the first draw and selected Juraj Slafkovsky, while the Seattle Kraken won the second draw and took Matty Beniers. Columbus ended up selecting Kent Johnson with the fifth overall pick.
2016: The Blue Jackets were the only time they’ve won a lottery draw, securing the third overall pick in the third drawing. However, they have never won the first or second lottery draws.
2015: The Edmonton Oilers jumped from the third position to first, drafting Connor McDavid. The Blue Jackets’ late-season surge decreased their lottery odds, but they were still able to select Zach Werenski.
2012: The Blue Jackets held the best odds for the first overall pick, only to see the Oilers jump them. Edmonton selected Nail Yakupov, while Columbus took Ryan Murray.
Previewing Tuesday Night’s Draft Lottery for the Blue Jackets
The Columbus Blue Jackets head into the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery with the fourth-best odds of securing the top pick, standing at 9.5%. This positions them to potentially select anywhere from first to sixth. They hold a 9.5% chance of landing either the first or second pick, while the likelihood of obtaining the third pick is less than 1%. However, there exists a unique scenario where the Blue Jackets could move up one spot to third.
The probability of the Blue Jackets maintaining their fourth position stands at 15.4%. There is a 44.6% chance of dropping to the fifth pick and a 20.8% chance of falling to sixth. In the event of dropping to sixth, it would indicate that two teams below them have won draws to move up.
In essence, the chances of the Blue Jackets winning a draw are comparable to the likelihood of them sliding down two spots. The most probable outcome appears to be a drop of one spot to the fifth overall selection.
