Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar might prove to be more costly than beneficial.
The Kansas City Royals have already made several significant moves this offseason. On November 3, they re-signed veteran pitcher Michael Wacha to a three-year, $ 51 million deal with a fourth-year option. Less than three weeks later, they traded starter Brady Singer to the Cincinnati Reds for second baseman Jonathan India and outfielder Joey Wiemer.
However, the Royals still have work to do before the start of the 2025 season, and they must be cautious about which free agents they pursue to fill gaps in their roster.
On November 27, Tim Kelly from Bleacher Report listed the “top MLB free agents most likely to be overpaid this offseason,” and included two potential targets for the Royals: Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar.
The Royals still have challenges in the outfield, with Santander and Profar being names mentioned as possible acquisitions this winter. But are either of these free agents a good fit, or just a risky investment due to their likely high cost?
Should the KC Royals consider signing Anthony Santander? At 30, Santander seems to have several productive years ahead of him in MLB, but as Kelly noted, that’s not the only factor to consider.
“Anthony Santander isn’t on this list because we believe he’s not going to be a productive player moving forward,” Kelly explained. “But it feels unlikely he’ll ever match his 2024 campaign in terms of power output, and there’s not a ton of margin for error with him.”
In 2024, Santander recorded a line of .235/.308/.506, with a career-high 44 home runs and 102 RBI in 595 at-bats, achieving a 134 OPS+. While he clearly has power, concerns remain about his overall consistency. His career batting average of .246 and on-base percentage of .307 aren’t impressive, and his 58 walks in 2024 were the most of his eight-season career, yet he still ranked only in the 60th percentile, per Baseball Savant. The 2024 season marked the first time he posted an OPS over .800 (other than the pandemic-shortened 2020 season), which is surprising for a player known for hitting home runs, indicating he struggles to get on base.
Unless he can diversify his offensive approach, any team that signs Santander will be taking a gamble on his ability to maintain power as he ages, which carries inherent risks.
Defensively, Santander has room for improvement, with a -2 Outs Above Average (OAA) this past season, placing him below average in right field with an 89% success rate on 298 attempts.
Despite these concerns, Sportrac projects that Santander will secure a five-year, 88.7milliondealthisoffseason,whileBleacherReportestimatesafive−year, 101 million contract. Additionally, he rejected a qualifying offer from the Orioles, meaning any team that signs him will face a draft compensation penalty.
On November 4, the MLB Trade Rumors team suggested Santander could attract substantial interest this winter, listing the Royals as a potential destination. If Kansas City is smart, they should avoid overspending on a slugger who doesn’t address their specific needs.
Is Jurickson Profar a good fit for the KC Royals?
Profar’s potential for overpayment in free agency primarily stems from recency bias that inflates his value.
In 2024, the 31-year-old had the best offensive season of his career with the San Diego Padres, posting a .280/.380/.459 line, along with a career-high 24 home runs and 85 RBI in 564 at-bats. His 134 OPS+ ranked 34% above league average, earning him his first All-Star selection and Silver Slugger Award.
So, what makes this concerning?
Profar’s 2024 numbers were not only his personal best but also showed a significant leap compared to his career averages. While he batted .280 last season, his overall career average is just .245, and he has had multiple seasons below .230.
Perhaps Profar has finally found his stride after 11 seasons, and 2024 marks his breakout year. However, the possibility that last season was an anomaly is much more plausible.
Moreover, his solid offensive performance in 2024 obscures his lackluster fielding. Profar ranked 242nd out of 274 qualified fielders in OAA with a -7 score, achieving just an 85% success rate in 285 attempts in left field and landing in the 37th percentile for arm value.
On November 25, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand mentioned Profar as a “free agent who could make sense” for the Royals, but considering the overall picture, is he truly a good fit?
Sportrac predicts that Profar will will land a 2-year, $25.8 million deal out of free agency this winter, and B/R has been even more generous, projecting a two-year, $34 million deal with a $17 million club option for 2027. Both predictions would see an extreme pay increase from the contract Profar had with the Padres in 2024, with which he earned $1 million guaranteed with $1.5 million in incentives.
Given the considerable fluctuations in his performance over recent years, signing Profar would be a risky endeavor. It’s likely he could experience regression in 2025, combined with defensive metrics that don’t support any offensive inconsistency. With his inflated market value, the Royals should steer clear of making any expensive commitments to Profar.
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