‘The thought process is to go and win’

Jonathan Smith’s six-year tenure at Oregon State was filled with moments that left the fan base questioning his judgment. Specifically, fans frequently saw Smith gamble on fourth-down plays, often with Jack Colletto, America’s top fourth-down weapon, on his sideline. This boldness sometimes caused anxiety among Beaver fans.

However, Smith’s replacement, Trent Bray, has taken this risk-taking to another level, making Smith appear cautious in comparison. Bray’s approach raises the question: is there a situation where he wouldn’t go for it on fourth down? This season is poised to reveal that.

During Saturday’s 38-21 victory over Purdue at Reser Stadium, Oregon State successfully converted 1 out of 3 fourth-down attempts. Although this doesn’t seem remarkable, Bray made two bold decisions that many coaches would typically avoid.

The first instance was on Oregon State’s opening drive, facing fourth-and-1 at their own 28. The decision resulted in an incomplete pass from Gevani McCoy, granting Purdue better field position early in the game. Thankfully, the defense recovered by forcing a fumble shortly after.

The second bold call came during the Beavers’ first drive of the third quarter. Leading 17-7, Oregon State stalled at the Purdue 3 on fourth down. Instead of attempting a simple field goal, Bray left the offense on the field, but the play resulted in another incomplete pass.

The only successful fourth-down conversion happened in the fourth quarter when Anthony Hankerson ran five yards on fourth-and-2 at the Purdue 23. This led to Hankerson scoring an 18-yard touchdown shortly after, sealing the win.

After the game, Bray showed no signs of dialing back his aggressive strategy. When asked about his decision-making process, he stated, “the thought process is to go and win.” He noted that the team had rehearsed various fourth-down situations during a meeting before the game and mentioned a recent Kansas State game where a fourth-down conversion led to a touchdown.

Bray expressed confidence in his team’s ability in these situations, acknowledging that while they won’t always succeed, he believes in their chances. The Beavers have converted 5 out of 11 fourth-down attempts so far, which is less than 50%, placing them at 95th among FBS teams. Only six teams in the FBS have attempted more fourth-down plays than Oregon State.

Bray’s strategy isn’t to always go for it on fourth down; the Beavers did punt twice against Purdue, achieving punts of 49 and 57 yards.

In contrast, Smith’s Beavers converted more than 50% of their fourth-down attempts in five out of six seasons, ranking in the top 10 for two years with conversion rates of 69.4% in 2018 and 69.6% in 2022. Over Smith’s six years, Oregon State achieved a fourth-down conversion rate of 61.9% (96 of 155).