Three key issues the New York Islanders have to deal with
1. Will Coach Patrick Roy Last More than Two Seasons?
When Patrick Roy joined the Islanders as head coach in late January 2024, he brought with him 246 games of NHL coaching experience from his time with the Colorado Avalanche (2013-2016). In the interim, Roy achieved success at the junior level, winning the 2022-23 Memorial Cup with the Quebec Remparts. However, with the NHL’s coaching changes happening rapidly and the high expectations set by GM Lou Lamoriello, can Roy defy the odds and remain the Islanders’ head coach for at least this season?
We believe he can, but projecting him to hold the position for two years feels uncertain. Given the likely roster changes before the 2025-26 season, we’re cautious in assuring Islanders fans that Roy will still be in charge then.
Moreover, it’s unclear if the Islanders will even qualify for the Stanley Cup playoffs this season. If they fail to reach the postseason, would Lamoriello look for a new coach again? We think the answer is also ‘yes.’ Even with Roy’s background as a championship goalie, the pressures of coaching in the NHL can be intense. If the team’s performance doesn’t meet expectations, Roy’s experience won’t protect him from being let go.
2. Will Semyon Varlamov Regain the Top Goalie Spot from Ilya Sorokin?
One of the biggest surprises of the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs was the Islanders’ decision to start Semyon Varlamov—the apparent backup—instead of regular starter Ilya Sorokin. This choice makes sense, given that Sorokin had a save percentage of just .786 in his sole postseason appearance, while Varlamov enjoyed a much stronger showing with a .914 save percentage and a 2.70 goals-against average.
Coach Roy opted for the goalie in form, and if Varlamov continues to perform well, there’s no guarantee that he’ll stick with Sorokin in the 2025 playoffs.
That being said, Semyon Varlamov will turn 37 in April, while the Islanders are set to pay Ilya Sorokin ** $ 8.25 million** per season for the next eight years. Such a salary implies that Sorokin will likely resume his role as the starter at the beginning of the upcoming season, and the team will hope he performs better under pressure.
Varlamov is signed for three more seasons, but he primarily serves as insurance for Sorokin. The starter position is ultimately Sorokin’s to lose, but Lamoriello and Roy won’t guarantee anyone a spot come playoff time. Sorokin needs to earn his place, and if he falters, Varlamov could find himself back in the spotlight.
3. Will Brock Nelson, Last Season’s Top Scorer, Stay with the Islanders for 2024-25?
Brock Nelson, age 32, led the team with 34 goals and 69 points last season, marking his third straight year of at least 34 goals and 59 games played. While most teams would want to keep a player like him, Nelson is entering the final season of a contract worth a relatively modest $ 6 million per year, and he’s likely to receive a substantial raise next summer. The question is whether that increase will come from the Islanders or another team.
The Islanders already have ** $ 65.825 million** committed in salaries for the 2025-26 season, along with five restricted free agents to re-sign with their remaining cap space. This situation could create a financial crunch, compelling Lamoriello to trade Nelson for younger, more affordable players or prospects.
Nelson’s value is significant as either a long-term asset or a rental player, meaning the Isles could secure a strong return if they trade him. If the Islanders struggle early in the season and are not in playoff contention by the trade deadline, it would make little sense for Lamoriello to keep Nelson around, only to let him depart as a UFA next summer.
For the past 11 seasons, Nelson has been a reliable player and is currently in his prime. However, if the Islanders fail to achieve significant success with him, the temptation for Lamoriello to part ways with him could become too strong to resist.
Our prediction is that Nelson might be traded around the deadline, giving him a better shot at a Cup with another team. While this may be disappointing for Isles fans who’ve seen him grow, in this competitive industry, Nelson should be aware that he could be playing his last season with the Islanders.
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