2 Obvious, 1 subtle move Erik Spoelstra must make to turn Heat into legit contenders

Just because the Miami Heat had an extraordinary run to the NBA Finals last season doesn’t guarantee a repeat performance this season. Securing a spot in the Finals for the third time in five seasons will require innovative approaches to new challenges.

Viewed as a marathon, the regular season can be likened to a chess match in the playoffs. Coach Erik Spoelstra comprehends that the regular season is about discovering solutions and readying the team for the postseason. The objective is to utilize the initial 82 games to devise strategies for potential obstacles.

With only 22 games remaining, the Heat are performing well. They have triumphed in 10 of their last 13 games and are close to clinching the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference. The team’s playoff identity is starting to take shape, but Spoelstra still has some adjustments to fine-tune to ensure his team is well-prepared for the playoffs.

Erik Spoelstra stands out among coaches for his exceptional ability to ready his teams for the postseason, yet there are still a couple of adjustments he can implement to elevate the Miami Heat to true championship contenders

While Erik Spoelstra cannot control this, the paramount factor, as always, is the players’ health. Tyler Herro, who recently missed three games due to a knee sprain, was absent in Saturday’s victory over the Utah Jazz due to discomfort in his right foot. The Heat are proceeding with caution regarding his persistent injury, and the exact timeline for his return remains uncertain. Additionally, Kevin Love missed his second consecutive game due to an ankle bruise. The Heat heavily rely on the return of both players to reach their optimal performance level.

Jimmy Butler has been showcasing his finest two-way play this season. Over his last 11 games, he has been averaging 24.8 points on 55.8% shooting, along with 7.1 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 2.1 steals. During Butler’s presence on the court, the Heat have clinched six victories in their last eight games.

“It’s crunch time,” Butler recently emphasized.

To capitalize on this successful streak and mold the Heat into a formidable title contender by the playoffs, what can Spoelstra do next? Perhaps the initial step could involve a modification in the starting lineup.

Give Duncan Robinson the starting position instead of Tyler Herro

The debate may have reached a turning point due to Duncan Robinson’s improved overall performance. In the last four games that Robinson has started while Tyler Herro has been out, Robinson has been averaging 5.8 assists per game and has scored at least 17 points in three of his last six starts.

Herro excels in creating shots, but there’s a case to be made that Robinson meshes better with Butler and Adebayo in the starting lineup.

When Robinson is on the court with Butler and Adebayo, the Heat are outscoring opponents by 8.3 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass. Lineups with Herro instead of Robinson alongside Butler and Adebayo are winning their minutes by 5.9 points per 100 possessions.

The key difference lies in offense, where the Robinson-led lineups are scoring 117.1 points per 100 possessions, while the Herro-led lineups are scoring 114 points per 100 possessions. This shift can drastically affect the team’s offensive performance, from a top-10 offense to a bottom-10 offense depending on the starting shooting guard.

The current stats don’t criticize Herro directly. Instead, they highlight Butler’s increased playmaking responsibilities, especially in Herro’s absence. However, the absence of Herro seems to encourage Butler to be more aggressive in creating plays.

Starting Robinson over Herro was not a viable choice last season, before Robinson improved his off-the-dribble game and shooting accuracy. Now that Robinson can effectively attack defenses and run pick-and-rolls, the slight drop in playmaking skills is offset by the strong chemistry he shares with Jimmy and Bam.

Spoelstra has already been mixing Herro’s playing time with Butler’s, so bringing Herro off the bench at the start of games could align with that strategy and allow the most cohesive five-player unit to have more time on the court.

While it’s important to cultivate better chemistry with Herro and the starters during the regular season, Herro’s absence due to missed games may hinder this process, especially with only 22 games remaining. Every minute is crucial in the playoffs, and maximizing opportunities for the best lineups to build leads is essential.

Consider starting Nikola Jovic

The season has had its highs and lows for the Miami second-year forward. The Heat have a 10-8 record when Jovic starts, with a particularly strong 5-1 record in his last six starts, providing compelling reasons for Coach Spoelstra to potentially make him a permanent starter.

When not in the starting lineup, Jovic often found himself out of the rotation entirely. Acknowledging his shortcomings, Jovic expressed his need to enhance his defensive skills to earn the trust of Coach Spoelstra in an interview with the Miami Herald in January.

Addressing his defensive deficiencies, Jovic admitted, “Defensively, I still need a lot of work. I feel like I’ve improved a lot because I’m working on it. But I still feel like I’m not there. As someone who is 6-foot-10, I think I can do a lot more. Those things are going to keep me on the court, and those are the things that Coach Erik Spoelstra emphasizes as important.”

At that time, Jovic was averaging the highest fouls per 36 minutes on the team at 4.9. However, this number has decreased since Jovic returned to the starting lineup, now averaging 3.8 fouls per 36 minutes.

On the defensive end, Jovic has shown more reliability in his rebounding, positioning, and boxing out skills. Standing at 6-foot-10, he towers over Miami’s other starting power forwards, Haywood Highsmith and Caleb Martin, by at least four inches. This height advantage has been noticeable in recent matchups against formidable teams like the Bucks and Nuggets.

Offensively, Jovic has displayed better decision-making. He is capitalizing on open three-point opportunities and swiftly initiating fast breaks after securing rebounds, leading to crucial transition scoring chances for the team.

While still young and untested in a playoff environment, Jovic is maximizing his playing time and demonstrating growth. Coach Spoelstra should utilize the upcoming weeks to assess whether Jovic is prepared to step into a starting role for the playoffs.

Let Jimmy Butler take over the game

Jimmy Butler may not exhibit superstar tendencies in terms of high usage rates and shot attempts throughout the regular season, but when he does, the Miami Heat’s potential in the playoffs becomes more evident.

Butler elevating his intensity has been a significant factor in Miami’s recent winning streak, although there remains room for him to assert even greater dominance.

While Butler typically prioritizes facilitating for his teammates over being a focal point on offense, statistics indicate that the Heat’s offensive performance could benefit from him taking charge more frequently.

Ranking sixth in points per possession in isolation plays (1.12), Butler is among the top isolation scorers in the league. However, he currently ranks 29th in isolation possessions per game.

Although Butler showcases efficiency comparable to elite scorers like Jayson Tatum and James Harden in isolation situations, he engages in these plays less frequently than players such as Jaren Jackson Jr. and Cam Thomas.

While the Heat are aware of Butler’s potential impact in isolation plays during the playoffs and may not need to increase his isolation opportunities in the upcoming weeks, Coach Spoelstra can utilize this strategy to enhance half-court scoring in postseason matchups.

In championship runs, star players play a pivotal role, and Butler exemplifies the type of star power that the Heat require. When crucial moments arise in the playoffs, they will entrust Butler with the ball and allow him to take control of the game.