Notre Dame and Penn State, two proud college football powerhouses, stand in each other’s way of playing for the national championship next Monday. The Fighting Irish have 13 titles to their name while the Nittany Lions have two, though neither program has added to their count this century.
It’s also been a while since Notre Dame and Penn State played on the gridiron. The most recent matchup went to the Nittany Lions in 2007, which evened up the all-time series, 9-9-1. The 20th meeting in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Orange Bowl on Thursday will break that deadlock.
No. 7 Notre Dame (13-1) advanced this far behind a dominant defense and relentless run game. Those strengths were evident in a 27-17 win over No. 10 Indiana in Round 1 and again in a 23-10 triumph over No. 2 Georgia in the CFP Quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl. Coach Marcus Freeman’s Fighting Irish have won 12 straight games in dominant fashion since their shocking upset at the hands of Northern Illinois in September. Their plus-24.1 margin of victory is
No. 2 in the nation behind only Ohio State. No. 6 Penn State (13-2) is on a roll in the CFP since its loss to Oregon in the Big Ten title game. Coach James Franklin’s Nittany Lions throttled No. 11 SMU, 38-10, in the first round and beat
No. 3 Boise State, 31-14, in the CFP Quarterfinal at the Fiesta Bowl. PSU’s only two losses this season were to the top-ranked Ducks and the Buckeyes, the odds-on favorite to win it all. Both games were decided by one possession. How to watch Notre Dame vs. Penn State, game odds Location: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL.
Kickoff: Thursday, Jan. 8 at 7:30 p.m. ET TV: ESPN Spread:
Sean McDonough, Greg McElroy, Molly McGrath, and Katie George: Why Notre Dame Will Win Only two teams have scored 20-plus points against the stingy Irish defense all year long. Notre Dame ranks No. 2 nationally in scoring defense (13.6 PPG), No. 5 in passing yards allowed (167.4) and No. 8 in total yards allowed (295.4). Run defense is their weakest link—the Irish rank 32nd, allowing 127.9 rushing yards per game—and even then, the Hoosiers and Bulldogs combined to gain 125 yards on 56 attempts. The Nittany Lions are one of the best rushing offenses in the FBS, so the matchup between their running backs and the Notre Dame front seven is one to watch. The Fighting Irish will again be without their sack leader Rylie Mills (knee), but they still have playmakers on defense, specifically in the secondary.
All-America safety Xavier Watts has made his presence felt throughout the College Football Playoff. He leads the way with 17 tackles across ND’s two games and he recorded his team-leading sixth interception against Indiana. Watts will be key in the effort to neutralize the connection between quarterback Drew Allar and Mackey Award-winning tight end Tyler Warren. Notre Dame Fighting Irish safety Xavier Watts (0), defensive lineman Howard Cross III (56), linebacker Jack Kiser (24), and quarterback Riley Leonard (13) celebrate with the Sugar Bowl trophy. Geoff Burke-Imagn Images Geoff Burke-Imagn Images The Irish are extremely committed to the run on offense. Quarterback Riley Leonard threw for a season-low 90 yards in the Sugar Bowl, but he added 80 on the ground.
That was the third game in a row Notre Dame had a different leading rusher as Leonard, Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have each led the team. (Love reinjured his knee against UGA but is “good to go” for Thursday, according to Freeman.) Each member of that trio has handled at least 100 carries and gained over 700 yards; they also account for 38 of the team’s 42 rushing touchdowns, which is good for fourth-most in the country.
The Fighting Irish are the No. 4 scoring offense in the country (37.7 PPG) and the highest-scoring team left in the field. While Leonard is not a high-volume passer, he is an efficient one. He’s completed 38-of-56 passes in the playoff for 291 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, just his sixth this season. Beaux Collins leads ND in receiving with 458 yards on the year, but Jordan Faison has led the way in the CFP with 89 yards against the Hoosiers and 46 against the Bulldogs. Leonard’s availability to avoid sacks looms large against a defense that has gotten to the quarterback 39 times. Defensive end Abdul Carter leads the team with 11 sacks, but he’s dealing with an arm injury heading into the CFP semifinal.
Special teams are also coming together at the right time for the Fighting Irish, as kicker Mitch Jeter is 5-of-6 on field goal attempts in the playoff after missing his previous three field goal tries. Why Penn State Will Win The Nittany Lions are also no pushover on defense. They’re No. 7 in points allowed (15.8), No. 8 in rushing yards allowed (100.9), and No. 6 in total yards allowed (288.8). Penn State’s defense matches up better with Notre Dame’s offense than the other way around, which could be the difference in what’s expected to be a tight, low-scoring game.
After shutting down SMU and Boise State, two top-10 scoring offenses, the Nittany Lions should be ready for the Irish. Penn State came away with seven takeaways (including two pick-sixes) and six sacks across those two games and held the nation’s leading rusher, Ashton Jeanty, to a paltry 3.5 yards per carry. A stout front seven bookended by Carter and defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton can slow down Love, Leonard, and Price, which might force Notre Dame to throw on a defense that’s picked off 18 passes this season, tied with the Irish for the third-most in the country.
Penn State has no qualms about airing the ball out, though it’s hardly had to in the CFP so far. Allar ranks third in the Big Ten in passing yards (3,192), and more than a third of those yards have gone to Warren. After their all-world tight end, wide receiver Harrison Wallace III is the Nittany Lions’ second-leading receiver with 723 yards. They also involve their running backs, namely Nicholas Singleton, a good deal in the passing game.
Penn State running back Nicholas Singleton (10) leads the Nittany Lions with nine rushing touchdowns this season. Allen outran Boise State all on his own with 134 yards, and he punched in a pair of touchdowns against Indiana, while Singleton has a touchdown in each CFP game.
They reap the benefits of running behind two all-conference guards, Olaivavega Ioane and Sal Wormley, though it should be noted Allar has been sacked seven times in two playoff games after being taken down just 11 times in 13 games. Allar is also a threat to take off and run with six touchdowns on the year—he ran for a season-high 54 yards against Oregon in the Big Ten title game but has largely been contained thus far in the CFP. Penn State (33.7 PPG) is the lowest-scoring offense still standing in the CFP, but it’s also perhaps the most balanced, averaging over 200 yards of offense through the air and on the ground.
That duality is important against a defense of Notre Dame’s caliber. Final Analysis With these teams so evenly matched, the Orange Bowl could very well hinge on one decisive play. The Fighting Irish might have a methodical offense, but they’ve come up with explosive plays when necessary, including two 90-plus yard scores in the playoff. Notre Dame also does a good job of limiting those types of plays on the defensive end and has more takeaways (31) than any other team in the country.
That’s a tough recipe for the Nittany Lions to contend with, though they certainly have the weapons on both sides of the ball to keep this game close.
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