This year, the Syracuse Orange and the rest of the NCAA football landscape competed for a prized position in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. However, another major change to the college football postseason may be looming.
This week is crucial for the future of the CFP. Athletic directors from the SEC and Big Ten—the two largest and most influential conferences in college sports—are convening once again.
What’s on the agenda? A discussion about an expanded College Football Playoff, which could allow the SEC and Big Ten to increase their representation significantly.
Within the Big Ten & SEC, momentum builds for an expanded playoff with multi-AQs per league.
Ahead of the SEC-B1G joint meeting, the industry is closer than ever to a new CFP, reimagined league title games, 9-game SEC sked & SEC-B1G scheduling packagehttps://t.co/Rcl99Wndj9
— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) February 17, 2025
According to a report from Yahoo! Sports, there is growing momentum among both major conferences to expand the postseason to include either 14 or 16 teams, with multiple automatic qualifiers (AQ) potentially being assigned, amounting to as many as four per league for the SEC and Big Ten.
To provide context, let’s outline the current College Football Playoff (CFP) model used in the past season compared to what this new proposal would involve.
Current/inaugural CFP:
- 12 teams
- 5 conference champions (SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, and the top Group of Five team)
- 7 at-large bids
- The four highest-ranked conference champions receive byes in the first round
- No re-seeding after each game
THE FIRST-EVER 12-TEAM CFP BRACKET IS SET 🔥 pic.twitter.com/LPwpoxdzLM
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 8, 2024
Under a proposed system gaining traction—referred to by officials as the 4-4-2-2-1+1 model (not confusing at all, right?)—here’s how it would work:
- 4 automatic qualifiers (AQs) from the SEC
- 4 AQs from the Big Ten
- 2 AQs from the ACC
- 2 AQs from the Big 12
- 1 AQ for the highest-ranked Group of Five champion
- 3 at-large spots (one set aside for Notre Dame if it finishes in the top 14)
- No bye weeks (at least within the 16-game playoff format)
If this 16-team format had been in place this year, the CFP field would have looked like this:
SEC AQs: Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Alabama
Big Ten AQs: Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, Indiana
ACC AQs: Clemson, SMU
Big 12: Arizona State, Iowa State/BYU
Highest Group of Five champion: Boise State
Three at-large bids: Notre Dame, Miami (FL), Ole Miss
However, this is all hypothetical and based purely on the final CFP rankings. Would a 10-2 Miami truly qualify over 9-3 Ole Miss or South Carolina? Just a thought.
This speculation highlights a key issue: the SEC and Big Ten are leveraging their power effectively, even if it risks alienating a large portion of fans not aligned with those conferences.
Another major factor for the ACC and other leagues is the financial implications, as extensively covered by Yahoo! Sports reporter Ross Dellenger.
From Syracuse’s perspective within the ACC, the path to the playoffs would become significantly more challenging under this model. Based on the 2024 rankings and records, Syracuse would likely need to lose no more than three games (unless they secured a spot in the ACC Championship). Realistically, two losses might be the minimum requirement.
Regarding the conference championship itself, there are talks about changing the ACC’s format. Commissioner Jim Phillips recently indicated that discussions could arise around allowing the best team in the league to receive a bye, with the next two top teams competing (cough tactical move cough).
For Syracuse, this new format would reduce room for error. If the ACC has only two guaranteed spots and a slim chance for an at-large bid, Syracuse would have to defeat two of the following: Stanford, Boston College, and Pittsburgh. The Orange (5-3) finished in a four-way tie for fourth in the conference. If the championship were contested between the second- and third-best teams, just one more win could have been crucial.
However, with a significantly tougher schedule in 2025 compared to 2024, the challenge grows immensely. Looking at next year’s schedule, assuming victories over Colgate and UConn, Syracuse would need at least six wins against teams like Clemson, Duke, SMU, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Miami, and Boston College. While some wins may seem possible (against GT, UNC, Duke, BC, and Pitt), any loss could necessitate another victory against a highly ranked opponent.
The crucial date to monitor is later this month when the CFP Management Committee is set to convene next Tuesday. This meeting could reveal the SEC-Big Ten proposal, bringing about significant changes and additional challenges for Syracuse and the rest of the conference.
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