Karl-Anthony Towns trade rumors are inevitable after Timberwolves’ loss to Mavericks, but are they realistic?

Towns was terrible against the Mavericks, but should that knock him off of the Timberwolves?

Karl-Anthony Towns played a pivotal role in what was possibly the biggest win in Minnesota Timberwolves history. To be clear about that, let me say that. Towns was Nikola Jokic’s main defender as the Timberwolves upset the reigning Denver Nuggets to get to the 2024 Western Conference finals. Towns was as important to the idea that this team was assembled to defeat the Nuggets in particular as Rudy Gobert and Anthony Edwards were. Against some of the strongest lineups in the league, the self-described greatest shooting big man in NBA history was vital to the Timberwolves’ offensive viability. Without him, Minnesota’s season would have ended weeks ago.

Right now, weeks seem like years because of Karl-Anthony Towns’ terrible performance in the Western Conference Finals. Towns wasn’t meant to be one of Minnesota’s intractable matchup problems with the Dallas Mavericks. No. He was expected to dominate the smaller P.J. Washington and help Minnesota dominate the glass in their postseason matchup with the Mavericks, who hadn’t really been challenged inside yet. You, on the other hand, watched the games. During the Western Conference Finals, Towns shot 33 out of 87. Minnesota fell by sixteen points in his minutes. In Game 2, Naz Reid defeated him. He didn’t make many defensive remarks.

Towns has essentially been this player his entire career—a standout who is both gifted and erratic. He scored 25 points or more in five of the final seven games of the 2022 and 2023 playoffs, but just 15 points or less in four of his 11 games overall. Compared to three or fewer (14), he had more playoff games (18) with four or more fouls. Twenty of Minnesota’s thirty-two postseason games have seen him lose minutes. You just had to put up with this for the majority of NBA history. Max-level abilities were so uncommon and so precious in their prime that you had to grit your teeth to look past their irregularities and pay them blindly whenever you got the chance.

The NBA we play in now is not that one. The goal of the 2023 CBA was to dismantle organizations like as the Timberwolves. As of this writing, Minnesota had committed to paying out around $193 million for the upcoming season; this amount increased by about $7 million after Edwards was named an All-NBA player.

There are currently just ten players under contract with the Timberwolves. Before trades, their final salary, before free agents, is nearly guaranteed to be in the neighborhood of $200 million, even if they chose to fill their remaining spots with minimum wages instead of re-signing important free players like Monte Morris and Kyle Anderson. Depending on the final figures, a payroll of this kind would also require a luxury tax payment in the neighborhood of $70 million. In total, that would rank among the most costly rosters in NBA history for the Timberwolves in 2024–25.

Having one of the most costly rosters in NBA history couldn’t come at a worse moment. When July rolls along, the second apron’s strictest regulations take effect. The tax-payer midlevel exception will no longer be available to teams making more than that estimated $189 million. They won’t be able to take home a penny more in deals than they give out, or combine salaries in trades. At the conclusion of the first round, their draft choices are frozen, and their tax obligations increase significantly beginning in the 2025–2026 season.

Steve Ballmer or Joe Lacob could be able to handle that reality with ease. It’s difficult to accept that Minnesota will be the owner. When all is said and done, we have no idea who will ultimately control this team. Since the league adopted its more punitive format in 2011, just once—during the 2019–20 season, when Minnesota was just barely above the line—has incumbent owner Glen Taylor paid the luxury tax.

Even more terrifying are potential additions Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez. According to a report by ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the budget for the upcoming season included a projected payroll of $171 million, which was $1 million less than the anticipated $172 million luxury tax line. These documents were shared by Lore and Rodriguez with the NBA and the Carlyle Group, a private equity firm that would have been involved in their purchase for the team. Payroll would have to be cut by almost $30 million as a result.

This isn’t a $30 million unnecessary wage. To be honest, most of the players on Minnesota’s roster are underpaid. The Timberwolves would have a long list of suitors if they made Jaden McDaniels ($22.5 million salary for the upcoming season), Naz Reid ($14 million), or Mike Conley ($10 million) available in cap dumps. When it comes to Minnesota’s playing style, all three are absolutely necessary and priceless. On a team built for defensive success, Gobert is the Defensive Player of the Year. He won’t be leaving. The franchise’s face is Edwards.

That essentially leaves Towns. Not only is he Minnesota’s sole route to savings, but he is also the only route to significant change. Is change necessary, regardless of cost? Well, there is disagreement about that.

The reigning champion Nuggets were defeated by the Timberwolves. That would appear to suggest that their roster is capable of winning a championship. The problem is that more than one of those can be present at once. Dallas also has one, and it performed admirably against Minnesota’s. If Towns had played a little bit closer to his peak against the Mavericks, the Timberwolves might have overcome their deficiencies. Rather, his difficulties might have cost Minnesota its best opportunity to win the championship.

Towns might be traded for assets that change the matchup’s dynamics to Dallas’ advantage. If you can make him into a wing defender who can compete with Doncic, akin to Lu Dort, maybe the outcome of the rematch will be different. If you go that approach, of course, all of a sudden the scale that allowed you to defeat Denver is gone, and you’ve addressed one problem by essentially creating another. Alternatively, he might be dealt for a younger point guard who prioritizes scoring. Though Towns is an offensive-oriented big man, the Timberwolves only placed 17th in terms of offensive production this season. In most matches, it’s worth questioning how much he truly needs to be effective when Reid can accomplish comparable feats for a third of the cost.

Naturally, the other teams in the league are also considering that if the Timberwolves are. Consider a few of the players that are active in the trade market this offseason. Zach LaVine, Brandon Ingram, and Trae Young are all no-brainer max contracts in the old world, but their contracts are currently making it difficult for them to draw in significant interest. Edwards provides an offensive defense of a max. Gobert responds in kind. Although Towns’ specific postseason activities are unknown, four years of guaranteed money are waiting for him. How many teams will want to pay Towns maximum money if he isn’t a max player?

The possibility that the younger Towns may return a comparable asset package in the event that the highly expensive Gobert trade fell through helped to justify some of the risk involved in that deal two summers ago. That may no longer be the case. How many clubs have win-now guys to send back to Minnesota, are willing to give Towns four years of supermax money, and have those players signed to contracts that would save the Timberwolves money?

None is the obvious response. Perhaps you might extend it little. How much do the Knicks want to trade Julius Randle for an upgrade? A fairly simple scenario would see Minnesota trade Towns for Randle, Bojan Bogdanovic, and some draft capital in order to get a $30 million power forward rather than a $50 million player for the upcoming season. Towns is a graduate of Kentucky and a client of CAA, thus he has been close to New York’s power brokers for a long time. The Knicks seem unlikely to have more ambitious trade goals, especially considering how poorly Towns and Tom Thibodeau got along in their first meeting.

Towns is an interesting fit for Oklahoma City because of their willingness to play five-out offensively. Given that the Thunder have the cap capacity to take on a large salary and that Cason Wallace is ready to take Dort’s position, a straight-up Dort-centric trade would even make some basketball sense in this situation. However, the Thunder must take into account their own long-term financial concerns. Before Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams start earning their maximum salaries, they have a two-year window. It’s difficult to see them paying Towns and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander simultaneously.

Miami is usually amenable to elite players, but the Towns-Jimmy Butler combination didn’t work out in Minnesota, and even in the event that Butler is dealt as reported, Towns will still be overlapping with Bam Adebayo. Though the Pelicans, like the Timberwolves, are attempting to conserve money rather than spend it, there are enticing basketball arguments for New Orleans to trade Ingram for Towns. Perhaps a talented lower-class squad looking to get up takes a swipe at them? Houston has recently started hunting big wildlife. Utah has always been. Perhaps a front staff that remains anonymous, as to that of Charlotte or Detroit, is facing sufficient ownership pressure to simply rely on the players.

However, this isn’t a comfortable fit. Minnesota’s issue is not exclusive. The contracts that the league awarded before this new CBA made them poisonous have the other half of the league in a panic. The sport is evolving, but no one is quite sure what it will become exactly. All we can be certain of is that it is practically impossible to win a championship with a maximum player playing as well as Towns did against Dallas during the playoffs.

Keeping players like that will soon become so costly in terms of missed opportunities elsewhere on the team’s roster that everyone making maximum salary will need to contribute maximum output. Not against Dallas, Towns did. The Timberwolves aren’t training for the Finals because of this, and they might not get another opportunity to perform as well as they did if they can’t find a way to maximize him on the court or through a trade.