What is the history of RB and WR in round two?

As we continue our journey leading up to the draft, we delve into the history of draft selections and their success rates.  A wise saying suggests that the past serves as a prologue, meaning that past experiences can predict future outcomes. At present, the Houston Texans do not possess any first-round picks but hold two second-round selections.

Fortunately, if the season were to commence today, the Texans could field a starting lineup on both offense and defense capable of securing more victories than losses. This was not the case last year or in many previous seasons. Therefore, when they make their picks, they have a multitude of options at their disposal. They could address positions of relative weakness such as defensive tackle, cornerback, linebacker, or safety. Alternatively, they could opt for the best player available, selecting the highest-rated player regardless of position. Moreover, they could start strategizing for the future beyond 2025.

Enter running back and wide receiver positions. The Texans boast solid starters in both roles. However, four out of the top five receivers currently on the roster are slated to become free agents after 2024. Meanwhile, while the Texans have confidence in Joe Mixon at running back, the question arises: who serves as his backup?

I truly believe that Nick Caserio is not scrutinizing this article or similar ones. His focus is on evaluating current prospects rather than delving deeply into past analyses. This diligence is to be expected from him. However, we can undertake that task and provide an assessment of the potential success of each position.

To accomplish this, we revisited the period from 2010 to 2019 and specifically examined second-round running backs and wide receivers. We analyzed their Pro Bowl appearances, the number of seasons they were recognized as starters according to Pro Football Reference, and their weighted average value (WAV). This value system assesses a player’s contributions based on points awarded for each season on a roster, each season as a starter, and meeting specific statistical benchmarks.

As anticipated, most of these players achieved weighted average values (WAV) of ten or higher, with only a few exceeding 40. Hence, we categorize individuals with a WAV of five or lower as relatively disappointing selections and those with 40 or above as highly successful picks. The majority of players fell within the spectrum between these two extremes.

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