When observing the St. Louis Blues’ performance, the terms irregular and perplexing are often evoked, and this sentiment seems to be widely shared across the league.
The team displays determination and strong competition on certain occasions, yet seems to lack vigor in subsequent games. Elliotte Friedman and Jeff Marek addressed the Blues during a recent episode of the 32 Thoughts Podcast released on Monday, expressing the view that “the Blues’ inconsistency may stem from players being placed in roles above their optimal positions in the lineup.” It’s difficult to dispute this observation when examining the composition of the Blues’ roster and assessing their performance throughout this season on both offense and defense.
The top line has predominantly performed exceptionally well. With the exception of the game where Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou were sidelined against the Detroit Red Wings, the trio has been the primary driving force offensively for the team. Kyrou, Thomas, and Pavel Buchnevich have established themselves as one of the top lines in the NHL, with Thomas projected to achieve the highest point total for any Blues player since 2002, while Kyrou and Buchnevich are maintaining a pace close to 70 points each. Nevertheless, beyond these three players, there have been scarce positive highlights among the forward group.
Jake Neighbours has shown significant growth this season, infusing the team with energy through his persistent efforts and physical play, attributes that are often lacking. He has become a crucial component of a power play that has shown improvement under interim head coach Drew Bannister following the dismissal of Craig Berube on Dec. 12. Similarly, Alexey Toropchenko has consistently demonstrated dedication and tenacity, showcasing his superior skating abilities and robust physical presence on the boards and in the forecheck. However, these are just five names within a forward group comprised of 12 players, emphasizing the limited number of consistent performers outside of the top line trio.
Consistent performances from experienced forwards such as Brayden Schenn and Kevin Hayes have been scarce, signaling the end of their dominance in the top six lineup. Both players have been hampered by age-related decline, lacking the elite skills and agility that once defined their game, leading to numerous instances where they have become liabilities for the Blues this season. The main issue facing the team lies in the absence of a playmaker to support Thomas from the center position. Schenn and Hayes, now categorized as bottom-six players at best due to their current stage in their careers, have been pushed into higher positions within the lineup, tasked with generating points, a role they struggle to fulfill effectively.
As numerous players are being tasked with roles that exceed their capabilities, general manager Doug Armstrong faces the challenging task of addressing roster gaps to propel the team towards contention. Securing a second-line center is crucial and should be a top priority for the Blues in the upcoming offseason. Several potential candidates could potentially align with the team’s needs in the summer transfer window
The Prospects
The most probable candidates to fill the second-line center position for the Blues are young talents from within the organization. The team is brimming with promising rising stars, many of whom play as centers. Among them, Dalibor Dvorsky and Otto Stenberg stand out as the top contenders for the role. These two prospects, selected in the first round of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, have garnered significant praise for their potential.
Dvorsky, one of the three first-round picks from last year, has excelled with the Sudbury Wolves in the Ontario Hockey League (OHL), tallying 67 points, including 34 goals, in 43 games. His impressive display of sharp shooting and playmaking skills in Sudbury suggests he has the potential to become a top-six forward, provided he refines his all-around game
Goal 37 for Dvorsky 👀😳
His second of the game and 4th multi goal game of 2024 #STLBlues pic.twitter.com/FHLZrZNJL9
— Mike Meyer (@M_Meyer3) March 9, 2024
The second of the trio of first-round picks is a less polished prospect compared to his counterpart playing in Sudbury. Stenberg demonstrates flashes of versatility and the ability to thrive in various game situations. His standout performance at the World Juniors, guiding Sweden to the gold medal game, showcases his adaptability. While he is considered a jack of all trades but master of none, his compatibility with the needs of St. Louis is evident. The Blues require players capable of excelling in all game scenarios, including special teams, and the 18-year-old is seen as a player who can develop into such a role. However, it will likely take another season or two before he is ready for NHL action with the Blues. While the prospect of his potential and ceiling is exciting, he might not be a viable option for the Blues during the 2024-25 season.
Another intriguing element in the prospect lineup that could have a significant impact on the immediate future of the Blues, possibly as soon as the upcoming season, is Zach Dean. Obtained in the trade that sent Ivan Barbashev to the Vegas Golden Knights, Dean is a prospect generating considerable interest among Blues fans eager to see him perform at the professional level. Much like fellow prospect Zachary Bolduc, the Blues are focusing on developing Dean’s overall game steadily. Although it has taken him some time to acclimate to the American Hockey League (AHL) with the Springfield Thunderbirds, Dean’s offensive skills have shown improvement recently, with eight points in his last ten games. Fans are intrigued by the prospect of Dean eventually slotting into the Blues’ lineup. While the idea of him becoming a second-line player may be unlikely, he has the potential to be a reliable contributor on the third line.
External Options
Armstrong has a history of being a proactive general manager, making bold moves to acquire star players in an effort to strengthen the team’s roster. While successes like the trade for Ryan O’Reilly have greatly benefited the franchise, some moves have struggled to have a significant impact. Unfortunately, the upcoming offseason presents a lackluster pool of unrestricted free agents at the center position, with most potential fits for the Blues’ rebuilding timeline being restricted free agents (RFAs). Nonetheless, there are viable options in both the unrestricted and restricted free-agent markets that the team should consider exploring to address their needs at center.
Each year, a few young players become restricted free agents, creating complexities for teams interested in signing them as the player’s original team retains the right to match any offer made. Furthermore, if a team extends an offer sheet to an RFA and the original team declines to match it, they receive draft picks from the player’s new team based on the contract’s value. Often, teams engage in trade discussions involving a player’s RFA rights, allowing them to negotiate a contract with the desired player without the risk of another team matching the offer. These negotiations commonly occur during the off-season, presenting the Blues with several potential options to consider for addressing the second-line center position.
Trading For Shane Pinto
Shane Pinto has had a tumultuous journey in his NHL career so far. In his debut full NHL season the previous year, he recorded 35 points, which included 20 goals, highlighting his strong offensive capabilities. Subsequently, following a successful season, he faced a 41-game suspension due to a violation of the league’s gambling regulations. Upon his return to the Senators’ lineup, he has maintained a near point-per-game production rate, registering 18 points in 20 games while building upon his promising performances from the previous season.
As the Ottawa Senators find themselves at a crucial juncture, seeking to revamp their core for a return to winning ways, they may contemplate refraining from reintegrating Pinto into the team, especially in light of his suspension. While there is uncertainty regarding the Senators’ stance on Pinto’s future with the team, given his age of 23 and potential significance to their long-term plans, the organization may opt to retain him. Pinto has demonstrated solid performance during his brief tenure in the NHL, maintaining a consistent point production rate over the past two seasons.
What a diving effort here from @shane_pinto. 💪
We've got ourselves a tie game! pic.twitter.com/ChVYLCbaxR
— NHL (@NHL) March 8, 2024
Yet, the Senators have the potential to receive a substantial return from a team prepared to offer Pinto a lucrative contract, providing Ottawa with multiple assets to strengthen their lineup and expedite their rebuilding process. The value attached to Pinto is expected to surpass the existing NHL minimum salary of $775,000. Should Ottawa decide to part ways with him, facilitating a trade involving his rights to a team, such as the Blues, in need of center depth, could prove beneficial for both sides engaged in the transaction.
Adding Chandler Stephenson to the roster.
The cap dynamics of the Vegas Golden Knights will be intriguing to watch in the off-season following their recent moves at the deadline. Managing impending free agents such as Alec Martinez and Jonathan Marchessault, alongside considering extensions for newcomers like Noah Hanifin and Anthony Mantha, could complicate their cap situation further. The addition of Tomas Hertl’s long-term contract also adds to the challenge, potentially requiring tough decisions on retaining all core players or allowing key free agents to depart
Chandler Stephenson, who will become a free agent at the end of the season, seems like the odd man out in the current roster setup. If he becomes available in the summer, St. Louis could have interest in acquiring him. With William Karlsson excelling as a top-tier center on both offense and defense, Stephenson has been shifted to the wing this season and is likely to continue in that role for the rest of the season, especially following the acquisition of Hertl. Despite predominantly playing as a center throughout his career, often in top-six roles, Stephenson has adapted to his new position on the wing.
Although Stephenson’s production has declined in the 2023-24 season, with 38 points in 59 games compared to two previous seasons of 60-plus points, he remains a reliable presence in the Golden Knights’ top six, capable of contributing at both ends of the ice. At 30 years old, he may be older than the profile of players that the Blues are targeting, but if General Manager Armstrong can negotiate a sensible contract with Stephenson for a few years, it could lead to an upgrade over Schenn. This move would enable the Blues to continue developing prospects like Dvorsky and Stenberg before potentially bringing them into the NHL.
Armstrong needs to take action
Armstrong must make a decision on whether to focus on developing promising young players and initiating a youth movement or acquiring an NHL-caliber player with top-six abilities to strengthen the center position for the upcoming season. Despite Schenn’s impressive leadership as captain, his performance as a top producer for the team has decreased, indicating a need for him to transition to a third-line role. While he can contribute as a mentor to emerging players, depending on him to play nearly 15-18 minutes of consistent hockey nightly is unsustainable.
To prevent a retooling phase from turning into a full-blown rebuild, Armstrong must prioritize solidifying the top two center positions for the next season. This upcoming off-season is crucial for the Blues’ management team and could define their careers if handled effectively
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