For the first time in 16 years, the Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans will face off as unranked teams.
This matchup certainly warrants a Big Ten Network broadcast, but it definitely doesn’t belong in prime time, as both teams’ seasons feel essentially over before November. While this was to be expected for the Spartans, the lack of strong performance from Michigan has diminished the excitement of the game. Nonetheless, the longstanding rivalry drives a fear of losing that outweighs any thrill of winning.
State would love to come away with a victory to help their rebuilding efforts under Jonathan C. Smith, even if it holds less significance given the Wolverines’ struggles. The main motivation for Saturday’s game is to avoid giving their rivals a sense of satisfaction, which is a tough spot to be in. Yikes.
Smith’s tenure began with a 3-0 record but quickly turned into three consecutive losses against Boston College, Ohio State, and Oregon. However, a 32-20 victory over Iowa was notable, and a win against Michigan would put this team in contention for bowl eligibility. Currently, SP+ ranks the Spartans 72nd overall, with the 29th-ranked defense but an offense that falls outside the top 100. Meanwhile, Vegas has Michigan favored by about a field goal after significantly reducing the opening line. The metrics lean toward the home team, but that assumes they actually play to their talent level.
Last year’s 49-0 loss in East Lansing was a relief following the tunnel incident a year earlier. J.J. McCarthy had a standout performance, making precise throws throughout the game. The previous matchup two years ago was yet another night game in Ann Arbor, which ended in a rather uneventful affair before some post-game chaos. This year’s game is expected to be more like the 2022 meeting, featuring more field goals than touchdowns. What’s next? In some respects, it may not matter who Michigan starts at quarterback. Each of the three options (or four if we count Jadyn Davis?) has clear weaknesses, and we’ve seen starters not finish several games this season. I want to avoid a gloomy outlook in these final previews, but there’s little more to say about the quarterback situation, which is critical to the offense and the team’s overall success.
The best strategy might be to fully commit to the running game. Kalel Mullings had a solid outing against Illinois, and Donovan Edwards has been effective on limited carries lately. While the offensive line changes haven’t made a significant difference, I still have more faith in the run blocking than in pass protection. Yes, Edwards had a fumble, but I’m more confident in the running backs’ ability to maintain possession compared to the quarterbacks. Michigan State’s defense is just above average against Power Five teams in terms of yards per rush and pass attempt, so it makes sense to leverage the offense’s strengths. Historically, the Spartans have had a solid defensive line, but transfers have weakened it. Iowa averaged 5.8 yards per carry against them last week, so Mullings and Edwards should have the opportunity to do the same, even without an effective passing game. Excitement either way Aidan Chiles’ arrival has been significant for State; while not perfect, the 19-year-old is expected to play a major future role in East Lansing. He is quite hit-or-miss, with six touchdowns and nine interceptions so far, keeping plays alive with his legs but also risking turnovers.
For a team in rebuild mode, this may not be disastrous, especially if it means taking shots downfield to Nick Marsh. One reason for State’s average offensive metrics is an unremarkable run game, though both Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams and Nate Carter averaged over 5.0 yards per carry last week. Still, Michigan’s defensive line remains a strength, and as long as they can contain Chiles, I don’t foresee the Spartans having much success on the ground. Given Michigan’s recent losses and Chiles’ aggressive playing style, a pass-heavy strategy seems likely. Unfortunately, this may lead to another frustrating performance. The defense hasn’t been terrible in recent games, but mistakes at crucial moments have proved costly. The Michigan offense isn’t helping matters, but it seems Wink Martindale is starting to adapt more to his players’ strengths and weaknesses. Whether that’s enough remains to be seen; statistically, it should be, but it ultimately hinges on avoiding crippling errors. Avoid the same mistakes One of the biggest criticisms of Jim Harbaugh’s coaching has been his 5-4 record against the Spartans. Meanwhile, Michigan’s rivals consistently come into this game prepared with unexpected tactics and a strong desire for revenge, which could mean trick plays are on the table.
The past three disappointing seasons for Michigan (2014, 2017, 2020) all included losses to State, regardless of how the rest of their seasons went. Saturday’s outcome will likely depend on whether Chiles’ risk-taking leads to touchdowns or turnovers; he won’t hesitate to test Michigan’s younger defensive backs, especially with Will Johnson nursing an injury. For the Michigan offense, I hope they lean on the run game, but I’m also eager to see the quarterback situation unfold. Perhaps Davis Warren will get a chance to prove himself, or maybe it will become clear that all three options have shortcomings. It’s hard to predict what will happen—at this point, any surprises are welcome!
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