The alarming stat that could sink the St. Louis Cardinals season

The Cardinals appear to have returned to their winning ways, but their run differential is a significant cause for concern. Despite rebounding from a 15-24 start to the season and boasting the best record in the National League since Mother’s Day, questions arise about their sustainability as a competitive team moving forward. A deeper look at the National League Wildcard standings reveals a troubling narrative for St. Louis.

Examining each team’s metrics on MLB.com reveals a glaring issue for the Cardinals: their run differential. Following a tough loss to the Reds in the series opener, the Cardinals’ run differential dipped to -38, ranking lower than every National League team except the Rockies and the Marlins, neither of which are genuine playoff contenders. When considering the American League, the Cardinals fare better than only the Blue Jays, White Sox, Angels, and Athletics.

How, then, do the Cardinals maintain an above-.500 record and secure a playoff position? Primarily, their bullpen has been exceptional. Pitchers like Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, Andrew Kittredge, rule-5 pick Nick Robertson, John King, and others have delivered outstanding performances. However, the bullpen is being heavily relied upon and may be nearing exhaustion, necessitating emergency usage of additional pitchers.

The Cardinals’ offense has not provided enough run support to ease the burden on the bullpen, despite the efforts of starting pitchers like Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, Miles Mikolas, and Lance Lynn to preserve innings. This places the relief core in high-pressure situations nearly every night, leaving little room for rest. If the Cardinals could generate more runs in games where victory seems attainable, they could ease the strain on their top relief arms and mitigate the risk of a collapse.

Additionally, luck has played a role in the Cardinals outperforming their expected win-loss ratio. While the bullpen has been instrumental in winning close games, reliance on luck may not be sustainable in the long run. If the Cardinals cannot secure victories by larger margins, their fortunes may reverse, and their impressive run from 9 games under .500 could come to an end before the playoffs commence.